v4 native age>=5min cap 60-250k >=3 sellers
Testmgr2 · miss family · paper, $10 a trade, since 26 Oct · idea #777 · updated 28 Oct 08:50 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd n>=15
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 30 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$21.91
Trades done
70
28 up, 42 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
stop .5 trail 40% tp3
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 1392 trades, mean 1.05x, +$765.82 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B stop .5 trail 50% tp10 | 67 | 1.08x | 11 | 0 | 52 | +$53.06 |
| A stop .5 trail 40% tp3 | 70 | 1.03x | 21 | 0 | 42 | +$21.91 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0x7d728d12d911fe933a7ba664d33ce103d62237b4e82f71cef51743c9399d7c41 | 28 Oct 08:41 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 69 | 0xb2dc30c200f35141523d2d5d390aaf1e7b6ccdbcfdd81e7718ac7ac7498c31d9 | 28 Oct 08:11 | $10 | stop | 0.42x (-57.8%) -$5.78 |
| 68 | 0xf83b52357fcc45e7c78193a4a28bfe82c9b9d7d3cdd15e5fce5465daa981bece | 28 Oct 06:58 | $10 | trail | 1.06x (+6.1%) +$0.61 |
| 67 | 0x9e1ab14070a29fce36a69634861ebb6b75de48d93ae56fab638044b93f0ad4f6 | 28 Oct 04:31 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 66 | 0x7d6ed8c1ccb248b3c96f6e1835c5e0359b23ce61f32a93b04eae3e4177ab67af | 28 Oct 04:07 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 65 | 0x3656316a6c383ea5b4c7090cad74737fcd8188b591a300078b895fc4eb799611 | 28 Oct 00:27 | $10 | trail | 1.30x (+29.8%) +$2.98 |
| 64 | 0x6d5193c3795f30ed933a43806a199252556ee781863c36574b37e07809185a5c | 28 Oct 00:23 | $10 | trail | 1.40x (+40.2%) +$4.02 |
| 63 | 0x1a98ed440982b014b039640fcef9d88e1e653e7d70c626dc1e1c93b155a48b45 | 27 Oct 22:44 | $10 | trail | 0.80x (-19.7%) -$1.97 |
| 62 | 0x092f8375ef6d5705c5f4d322c5de748b4c3e364ee3f9a5494e391b39b7519027 | 27 Oct 22:21 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 61 | 0x83e26aafa9665cd51d82b67adcd3c11ca4c916c2915991c300611fbf766c9837 | 27 Oct 22:11 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 60 | 0xc9e08926afd9e8a46dd5eee65ab15c1c9222f3fc3522d0cada07cf19d16beb02 | 27 Oct 18:15 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 59 | 0x3fef30ed4d65a6107d8af527cd10c65818d358ce1b5092ea05bad565e676a5ea | 27 Oct 18:12 | $10 | trail | 0.50x (-50.4%) -$5.04 |
| 58 | 0x1f2a5c7e3539578f512853a3b7779a4f6030a89e3ef26f97505724ef895a42e7 | 27 Oct 17:42 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 57 | 0x623e5ade5d504a97e5d6402e455e15f46aa1089807a0a9d77277b3474e9c90a8 | 27 Oct 17:28 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 56 | 0x9ab3fa44f5d207907042d520fd8bb61b53f1c9ed9c2946ef1d0ea89d1844329c | 27 Oct 16:24 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 55 | 0x8e0533915983263bcd46f61ee2632bdfe7a76e93e99f12ff04052b03942c550d | 27 Oct 15:57 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 54 | 0x7ab04442cdadbcf94a8760f1939438fb1e0272beafe73da42129ab791b073211 | 27 Oct 15:26 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 53 | 0xdf206e28eaf8d35f1d4381b192c810f6eadd7fc10d7d18c9aa14d06ad79b9ade | 27 Oct 12:35 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 52 | 0x0bf506f8facf977684a44bda2c40e2760b74a49dcfaab5f6a1c75bca746e4b2c | 27 Oct 12:10 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 51 | 0x7ca180a7f0d4701c086a26212f4a368a9811935bc7317775e275c72a88503a0b | 27 Oct 11:46 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 50 | 0x4b7f5b6f67e29a4662c176fe8ef3b341381c5091cbd72a22366f7631ca408463 | 27 Oct 10:38 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 49 | 0xc17ee55d2349c6416e7579e5718ea45d5c96909a533b4c51b7f26e6b99e6b8a3 | 27 Oct 10:11 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 48 | 0x43ca388be3f31545aefd048fd5d51ddf15921c18326243b6067ce711bcba7cf3 | 27 Oct 09:52 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 47 | 0x914b8d3a88ac6f6e2da31bc29a5496faba8ac25b49edd6824eded88a74e77c30 | 27 Oct 09:52 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 46 | 0xf471e1b61493a27933422484a2edc54e92922aac2fafee4a65bd6f5d72f948b9 | 27 Oct 09:52 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 45 | 0xc6719848e4277f0d1ee95a3420660ad751c5975e8654b8087248a53aee453e06 | 27 Oct 09:46 | $10 | trail | 0.56x (-44.2%) -$4.42 |
| 44 | 0xf147dd5e80ebef42b0f6d57f48f5368728099af3d7b5482228563a4b797c8355 | 27 Oct 09:44 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 43 | 0x17f517f058f9b48da125b4bd208d282ef90a66a1eae98ff12592f2ee8e799d78 | 27 Oct 09:27 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 42 | 0x9e740b8e87c4bf7aa554b5533e50b3d05e49363302d00e6b0211d8b565c1e5f6 | 27 Oct 09:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 41 | 0xc2aa04a9e1cf6b5e1b5286abf407dbaa0cbcdeb781a434f7c969dce113757337 | 27 Oct 09:03 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 40 | 0xd4d4a0d779c582fa48aa8309d94549ff7e83f33effd362de3e50211943e0adb0 | 27 Oct 08:42 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 39 | 0xeaf03d59837266fe7a87fbf71ebbb23372f38c8df37cb134f90a09e5b7865d82 | 27 Oct 08:03 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 38 | 0xa3ece3fec0bd0f25e57ca62932f9af69df704b67b9dd9e54a3a68ef240df6ce0 | 27 Oct 07:16 | $10 | trail | 1.56x (+56.1%) +$5.61 |
| 37 | 0x36586bbe649bf06f13049d5a9d61a52bdd9af2f7ed9d95dcb87e15fc8adb7eb8 | 27 Oct 07:13 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 36 | 0x84777c55b83d7ee8c03d41de5792d9a6718bef296e7e4f4a7d4ae4e3cb857de3 | 27 Oct 06:34 | $10 | trail | 1.49x (+48.6%) +$4.86 |
| 35 | 0xcc639899755476dcaff8f29baf3250e1ad28f004bce779017786d0895b34f7fd | 27 Oct 06:18 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 34 | 0xe1f760e89f9d4f8884f977c066c67c97557f839561718fb94cb9290f5c60b7cf | 27 Oct 06:08 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 33 | 0x46bd6231522c2125052deeda45b2f8378521884b67c976deeeb5f70858d9bdb1 | 27 Oct 05:44 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 32 | 0xa035bef005020ea9cee17e7706d677e583200ae98cc6743c578f46082f683ac1 | 27 Oct 03:51 | $10 | trail | 1.25x (+24.8%) +$2.48 |
| 31 | 0x4729ef90c9bc50dfd0272389821bfbf53bec011e1ee1e09bc0ddf2709691b479 | 27 Oct 02:08 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 30 | 0x2cbc713592d6c289b57d5e1b36c0f54f0f242369c086649c71dc6236f4aa12b8 | 27 Oct 01:26 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 29 | 0xf85b3ab611c8f62bbcb788ecfae53bdac86ea89e852199e3072cc7c131b991fd | 27 Oct 01:13 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 28 | 0x39c4f7e6ebe3801d2e575a5d57121ca6c7d0d926dfa2873e57659f2e93949fe5 | 27 Oct 00:14 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 27 | 0x0797a11923d071acd539b2361bc5a1620dcc9237da59b9619c08fd994fcd052a | 27 Oct 00:06 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 26 | 0x174886d94017097bad8dcc59b0a29d57ba7150c45bb887a660a787b4ff1e509a | 26 Oct 23:03 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0xfa3ff94d77e0a69037db4697e03a7314c5700c678929e26027f2a2dad15d1320 | 26 Oct 23:00 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 24 | 0x7355fe42534b76b4103f5c32293f6cf82b607fd529b274af8caaf8a809f2b914 | 26 Oct 22:41 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0x8399570a66ee464ee168f8048b548dae3801bd7250e005cc533b79deec4b773d | 26 Oct 22:27 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 22 | 0x550048adff4abd1e3ebbd342f802830c5cc5b80cf8d0db35b0a460734db962ee | 26 Oct 22:10 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 21 | 0x90b5485c1660f5f5d0893d9a41c77c3b680bb37b71d5830c9c7d871da1090e0a | 26 Oct 22:08 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 20 | 0x8f7476df0e5a9bbb0a477e3211b2f9c772c56c146e53d44dea39cb6bffea437d | 26 Oct 21:44 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0xbf4d421205a909fc9ddcc2cb2fc5b0c4e4a99fd6ed5cdff186e3624e5da31837 | 26 Oct 20:22 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0x60ec2db9a0a483c371cde2d0044f84b296e5620f46f201ad969329fef6f04579 | 26 Oct 20:13 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0xf50a9c099a87db9e883496b0c1c9f957ea87e32a0dbd40bc3b650ad91ad044b4 | 26 Oct 19:35 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x8c6b9890e884d1ded4ceaa123056fe84b8876af2e9af028c2ba40e0be89ccda2 | 26 Oct 19:35 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0xdf0c7cf53d251b5ce112c958a116cc59aa8c1ea0f3ca6ba85742efc733ab6f1a | 26 Oct 19:01 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 14 | 0x77d37c87e3acb8ef4ae389081b5f56ae54b56211eaa61a403b235fd2a4d474fe | 26 Oct 18:55 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 13 | 0xa9b3eed2b74221d1b24054097ffb6fe5c93fe17c4a0767d217c8f035d431c847 | 26 Oct 18:33 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0xb3e3e88af91c0d536a80a31f457aa480a85771b5a2e9845b787ed90384150218 | 26 Oct 17:11 | $10 | trail | 0.57x (-43.0%) -$4.30 |
| 11 | 0x2d8bf44d1e092535d647676b67249dfe30ec5c236eada0709d6f9876904ba6a4 | 26 Oct 16:44 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0x913b544fa778b6e3a4942fd1195d3b19d93448330dc6e2c4be5379c22f5017b4 | 26 Oct 16:14 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 9 | 0xfafa5e69b343b618284f3da2d6fd45569c2fb938c8bd05f9e554da2ea8299070 | 26 Oct 16:05 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 8 | 0xa93436d0a715dd46fb352154a0ddf29a770ddfc3d74415f1dc13cd1a4677630f | 26 Oct 15:49 | $10 | trail | 1.14x (+14.3%) +$1.43 |
| 7 | 0x00b6847d5f319459c676ba5327e0f1958d8031f56e87dbb881158485454fce99 | 26 Oct 15:05 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0x9ccf5526fe0180b708d6ab946a650c7cc57a710727682a49fe6eda18a654ce02 | 26 Oct 14:27 | $10 | trail | 0.88x (-11.9%) -$1.19 |
| 5 | 0xcf2c072272f1122ddaa91fb960dd6edc271bd37c3a282430af41b2f1946f8dbb | 26 Oct 14:15 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x0aea33fb38beb4c5cef8a1de5c2072d83372d3c43de793a93aa0223d4785d1c0 | 26 Oct 14:15 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0xdc2990e0bd0edc4a22922fee064962d7ae3537e5118c3960345cd689f3e861b5 | 26 Oct 13:53 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0xe82303b2c08997122483bc2a6acb914d5365a88ca5cabe24e4204cc3d3f2533c | 26 Oct 13:44 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x1d124e23d560d008ebb18b000c15d55a96f30b11209ddf500d3dccda93d562a6 | 26 Oct 13:33 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# s777: v4 native pools, first swap <=10min, buy at age>=5min cap 60-250k with >=3 sellers (#777) paper test (Test Manager 2) - 28 Oct 01:50 UTC
Spec: ledger #777 / analyst2 a2-777-rule.md. Analyst replay (assumed supply and ETH price) said 1.65-2.20x: treated as suspect. Here cap uses capx supply. Stop 0.5x, trail, 6 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull (liq<=50% peak) and quiet = 0. Rows with src=replay are tape replay before registration; only src=fwd counts for the forward check.
- Native pools in tape: 3741; with supply 3210; waiting 2585; open 9; skipped {'0cc hook (H3000) unsellable': 335, 'sellers<3 at 1st in-band swap': 15, 'no supply': 20, 'first swap >10min': 15, 'entry sell-sim BLOCK/tax (#4190)': 17}
- arm A (trail 40% tp3): on time n 459, mean 1.16x, <1x 258, tp 145, pull/quiet 184 | late (excluded) n 307, mean 1.03x, <1x 189, tp 87, pull/quiet 144
- arm B (trail 50% tp10): on time n 456, mean 0.90x, <1x 351, tp 21, pull/quiet 287 | late (excluded) n 307, mean 1.14x, <1x 241, tp 26, pull/quiet 204