v3 cap-continuation 150-300k VERY FRESH
Testmgr4 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 23 Oct · idea #3840 (ledger pending) · updated 25 Oct 08:14 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: fwd n18 1.38x ex3 1.00; awaiting auditor (25 Oct)
Still open:
- KILL 25 Oct: look-ahead (pools filtered on later reaching 300k). Unfiltered n296 0.92x, fwd n42 0.94x. fw/audit-v3cf1-25oct.md
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 27 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$68.79
Trades done
18
12 up, 6 down
Best trade
4.0x
Exit rule shown
H
cross 150-300k, pool age<=60m, stop .7 trail 50%
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 148 trades, mean 1.25x, +$363.07 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.
Every trade (exit rule H)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0xedbfa9051997aff1ca0038ec42a3a566aa52b067 | 24 Oct 22:32 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-34.7%) -$3.47 |
| 17 | 0x73f1ede59ba61c23bb39c2a1ba6770baf31fdf71 | 24 Oct 11:20 | $10 | trail | 1.10x (+10.2%) +$1.02 |
| 16 | 0x525f2b46bb98192f9fb9d0a3ce7e7c1b8895cf3e | 24 Oct 09:26 | $10 | trail | 0.84x (-15.5%) -$1.55 |
| 15 | 0x1ea8857ff869493abd236a49c83cf150fecf2ecf | 24 Oct 09:04 | $10 | trail | 1.34x (+33.9%) +$3.39 |
| 14 | 0x053e1969b9adb6a4c0932c43396e939fb4bae9f2 | 23 Oct 15:29 | $10 | trail | 0.76x (-24.0%) -$2.40 |
| 13 | 0x827e8814a273cb4b30c19025f85337dfe6966a64 | 23 Oct 07:42 | $10 | trail | 1.17x (+16.9%) +$1.69 |
| 12 | 0x09b3d1142d71faee4baf8b4057b724dd225ba314 | 23 Oct 06:49 | $10 | trail | 0.62x (-38.3%) -$3.83 |
| 11 | 0x8dbebbf1e65d9d185d9fdfac59c155b5c6d84964 | 22 Oct 23:47 | $10 | trail | 1.12x (+12.2%) +$1.22 |
| 10 | 0xaa9844f592dfab4cdc8ad96c0fbfd0137fae00b8 | 22 Oct 20:11 | $10 | trail | 1.32x (+32.3%) +$3.23 |
| 9 | 0x241919430981ae65d036a3fad4d207ba9c192ccc | 22 Oct 15:45 | $10 | trail | 1.03x (+3.1%) +$0.31 |
| 8 | 0x775b9201eae9512a7626818e5b8775d072b9832f | 22 Oct 11:05 | $10 | trail | 1.53x (+53.1%) +$5.31 |
| 7 | 0xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda6 | 22 Oct 04:26 | $10 | trail | 4.00x (+299.7%) +$29.97 |
| 6 | 0x82fc11f076817e52438d8e41da54edf086d829aa | 21 Oct 19:03 | $10 | trail | 2.70x (+169.9%) +$16.99 |
| 5 | 0x9cf6cdfd1c414bdc14594a67c7ca3eda8b1ea568 | 21 Oct 17:23 | $10 | trail | 0.65x (-35.1%) -$3.51 |
| 4 | 0xe9d0f67a79a952ff7928c3940a88b5289101dafe | 21 Oct 08:02 | $10 | trail | 1.17x (+17.4%) +$1.74 |
| 3 | 0x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb83 | 21 Oct 01:36 | $10 | trail | 0.63x (-36.7%) -$3.67 |
| 2 | 0x7c06e52a1c1f5713c1c39a30530536c591174fff | 20 Oct 18:49 | $10 | trail | 3.23x (+222.7%) +$22.27 |
| 1 | 0x6a723aa4637eb685fd5759a7b5eb3e296f30e755 | 20 Oct 16:38 | $10 | trail | 1.01x (+0.8%) +$0.08 |
Full Test Manager report
# v3cf1 paper (testmgr4) 25 Oct 01:12 UTC 150-300k VERY FRESH (age<=60m) hunt 1-3M. Open legs 0. - H: n 166, mean 1.26x, median 0.98x, win 78, pull 5, time 0