# Shadow variant grid: live mc5 rule (paper replay, Test Manager)

Made 28 Oct 02:58 Bangkok. Same coins and fill model as the live rule's research (bt.py tick-walk on real pool depth, 1% each way + gas), every night. Paper only; nothing touches a wallet. Only Ben changes the live rules (D-030). Numbers are tickets: +1.0 = one ticket of profit ($50 at $50). 'w/o top 3' removes the 3 best trades. Random = share of random draws from the same pools (same exits) that this rule beats, per period (dumb baseline, D-032). Kill rule: behind the live rule on both all days and the last 7 days in 3 runs in a row = dropped.

| variant | last 7 d: trades, net, w/o top 3 | since 13 Sep: trades, net, w/o top 3, per day | wins | beats random | behind live (runs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3x, 4h, 150k-1M | 4, +2.9, -1.0 | 348, +328.4, +229.2, +8.63 | 19% | 97/79/96 | 0 |
| no stop, 4h, 150k-2M | 4, +2.9, -1.0 | 398, +366.5, +267.2, +9.63 | 19% | 96/77/98 | 0 |
| **LIVE (0.5x, 4h, 250k-1M, 5m)** | 2, -1.6, +0.0 | 276, +292.3, +193.1, +8.14 | 17% | 98/85/96 | - |
| band 250k-2M | 2, -1.6, +0.0 | 326, +309.1, +209.8, +8.61 | 16% | 97/85/97 | 0 |
| entry 3m | 2, -1.6, +0.0 | 304, +341.2, +245.7, +9.20 | 15% | 95/76/99 | 0 |
| stop 0.3x | 2, -1.8, +0.0 | 276, +334.6, +235.3, +9.32 | 21% | 98/85/97 | 0 |
| no stop | 2, -1.8, +0.0 | 276, +343.3, +244.1, +9.56 | 21% | 98/85/98 | 0 |

**Leader (last 7 days): 0.3x, 4h, 150k-1M** vs live: +2.9 vs -1.6 tickets this week, +328.4 vs +292.3 since 13 Sep.
Dropped so far: time 1h (11 Oct), time 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h, 250k-2M (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h, 3m (11 Oct), band 150k-1M (15 Oct), entry 8m (18 Oct)

A leader is a candidate for Analyst 1, not a switch: a rule change goes through the pipeline and only Ben switches (D-030).