Made 27 Oct 07:41 Bangkok. Read only, no Claude in the loop. Only Ben switches live (D-030). Gate rule: 2 profitable days without bugs (D-031). Runner = Robinhood coin with ATH $1.0M+ (big: $5.0M+), from runtrack.
0 of 37 runners made us money (0%)
| step | runners | share |
|---|---|---|
| born (ATH $1M+) | 37 | 100% |
| seen by any bot | 36 | 97% |
| picked by any bot (paper or live) | 2 | 5% |
| made money (live or paper test) | 0 | 0% |
| item | USD |
|---|---|
| live P&L (fmmc5, real money) | $0.00 |
| paper P&L (fml2, not real) | $8.41 |
| running cost per week (costs.json, estimate: Ben edits it) | $104.00 |
| real money result after costs | $-104.00 |
10x hit rate of each picker book; shadow books end in _h; dumb baseline = every coin round 5 scored: 83 of 2516 hit 10x (3.3%).
| picker | book | picks | closed | 10x hits | hit rate | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| round5 | rule_fee001_first | 277 | 73 | 73 | 100.0% | 30x |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead | 75 | 19 | 16 | 84.2% | 26x |
| round5 | f5_20s_top2 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% | 25x |
| round5 | rule_r6_clean_up_2apps | 91 | 23 | 19 | 82.6% | 25x |
| round5 | v5_top2 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | 24x |
| round5 | f5_20s_top5 | 113 | 31 | 23 | 74.2% | 22x |
| round5 | base_top5_nodead_h | 56 | 15 | 11 | 73.3% | 22x |
| round5 | v5_top5_h | 39 | 13 | 9 | 69.2% | 21x |
| round5 | rule_smart2_clean | 269 | 32 | 22 | 68.8% | 21x |
| round5 | v5_top5 | 82 | 25 | 17 | 68.0% | 21x |
| round5 | blend_top2_h | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 18x |
| round5 | v5_top2_h | 8 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 18x |
| 60s | champion | 137 | 57 | 30 | 52.6% | 16x |
| round5 | id5_top1 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 13x |
| round5 | rand_gated | 61 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 12x |
| round5 | id5_top5 | 161 | 66 | 26 | 39.4% | 12x |
| round5 | id5_top2 | 74 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 11x |
| round5 | rand_30s | 94 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4x |
Live 1: Price Predict mc5 (fmmc5): HOLD SIZE (0 of 2 days)
$50 a trade. 2 closed trades, total $-13.31, without the best trade $-7.94 (best $-5.37). Losses in a row now: 2 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | 1 | no |
| 2026-10-17 | 2 | 0 | $-13.31 | 0 | no |
Paper 2: AI picks (fml2): WARNING: 11 LOSSES IN A ROW (info only, no loss stop since D-038)
$10 paper. 34 closed trades, total $47.67, without the best trade $0.24 (best $47.43). Losses in a row now: 11 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 1 | 0 | $-0.37 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-21 | 3 | 1 | $29.43 | 0 | yes |
| 2026-10-22 | 5 | 1 | $-0.54 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-23 | 3 | 0 | $-12.91 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 | 0 | $-0.17 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-25 | 2 | 0 | $-2.08 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-26 | 4 | 0 | $-4.94 | 0 | no |
Paper 1b: AI picks, no quiet exit (fml2v): NOT YET (0 of 2 days)
$10 paper. 34 closed trades, total $67.51, without the best trade $-49.45 (best $116.96). Losses in a row now: 5 of 10.
| Bangkok day | closed trades | wins | P&L | bugs | counts toward 2 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 1 | 0 | $-1.51 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-21 | 3 | 0 | $-20.12 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-22 | 5 | 0 | $-18.90 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-23 | 3 | 0 | $-16.01 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-24 | 1 | 0 | $-1.43 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-25 | 2 | 1 | $-1.21 | 0 | no |
| 2026-10-26 | 4 | 0 | $-6.84 | 0 | no |
Does picking beat taking everything the bot saw? Share of coins that became runners.
| bot | runners in its picks | runners in everything it saw | picking adds value? |
|---|---|---|---|
| fmmc5 (cap band rule) | 0 of 0 (-) | 24 of 553 (4%) | - |
| aipaper (AI score) | 2 of 54 (4%) | 47 of 3132 (2%) | yes |
| aipaper30 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| aipaper5 (AI score) | 0 of 0 (-) | 0 of 0 (-) | - |
| coin | ATH | venue | mc5 | aipaper | aipaper30 | aipaper5 | fml2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PONS (big) 0x621632fe | $200.4M | pp:v4/no hook/USDG | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pp:v4/no hook/USDG) | MISSED score 0.15 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| BTC (big) 0xa5b562d1 | $31.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.46 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xd00567 (big) 0xd0056740 | $8.1M | kit:other | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| PRESIDENT (big) 0x898588e7 | $7.5M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.09 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FPUMP (big) 0xd178a1e0 | $7.1M | standard_reserve | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue standard_reserve) | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xf41cce (big) 0xf41cceef | $6.5M | kit:other | MISSED cap $22k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| MAKERS (big) 0xff83b251 | $6.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.17 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| FLOP (big) 0x047a8448 | $6.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.07 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x603d9b 0x603d9b97 | $4.2M | kit:other | MISSED in band but skip | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| GME 0x8b4007d3 | $3.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.67 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0xa10269ec | $2.9M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.54 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| BTC 0xed2bf6f5 | $2.0M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.50 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0x2b3240b2 | $2.0M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.10 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xdf53ef 0xdf53ef2b | $1.8M | kit:other | MISSED cap $92k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x9fd7eb 0x9fd7eb2a | $1.7M | kit:other | MISSED cap $63k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Ginnan 0xc72f13a2 | $1.7M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.46 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0xae2420 0xae2420ea | $1.6M | kit:other | MISSED cap $70k at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Kimchi 0x17356b53 | $1.5M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.48 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0xab0af200 | $1.5M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.04 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ANT 0x65cb02a9 | $1.5M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.56 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| Bow 0xbfad6175 | $1.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.54 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0x9d0356b2 | $1.3M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.47 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x0002e1 0x0002e1f7 | $1.3M | kit:other | MISSED cap $1.3M at 5 min, over $1M | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| GME 0x90a7ef3b | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.64 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| NMS 0xfcca1124 | $1.2M | pons_v2 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pons_v2) | MISSED score 0.59 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| BibiCoin 0x0078a820 | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.45 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0xa45e1e73 | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.14 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0x20af9715 | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.08 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ASSAY 0x6bcab32e | $1.2M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.56 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0xaaa337ff | $1.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.48 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ETH 0xa6becc14 | $1.1M | pp:v4/no hook/ETH | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pp:v4/no hook/ETH) | PICKED score 0.86, ret +887% | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | MISSED skip_lane |
| PRESIDENT 0x651d6951 | $1.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.07 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| ANT 0xac143370 | $1.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.52 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0x0896adbb | $1.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.55 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| CTRL 0xbe672584 | $1.1M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | MISSED score 0.42 below the line | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| 0x1eac61 0x1eac614b | $1.1M | kit:other | MISSED cap $779.18 at 5 min, under $250k | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | - |
| STOKEN 0x9fd977ca | $1.0M | pool_uniswap_v4 | NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | PICKED score 0.89, ret +875% | NOT SEEN never scored | NOT SEEN never scored | MISSED skip_lane |
| venue | runners | seen by no bot at all |
|---|---|---|
| pool_uniswap_v4 | 36 | 1 |
| kit:other | 24 | 1 |
| pp:v4/no hook/ETH | 3 | 0 |
| pp:v4/no hook/USDG | 2 | 0 |
| pp:v4/hook 0x48b8f6ad/WETH | 1 | 0 |
| standard_reserve | 1 | 1 |
| pons_v2 | 1 | 0 |
| bot | coin | result | exit |
|---|
We bought the right coin, the exit sold it at a loss, and it still became a runner.
| bot | coin | cap at buy | our result | exit | coin ATH later |
|---|
| bot | coin | cap at buy | result | exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fml2 | 0xf5f76fcd | $10k | 0.62x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0xb6bf68d0 | $2k | 0.97x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0x682e9656 | $2k | 0.97x | dead_60s |
| fml2 | 0xb54bc2ce | $6k | 0.95x | dead_60s |
Data for analysts: misses.csv (every runner a bot did not pick, with the reason), history.jsonl (one line per night).